Anthropic is heading toward an IPO, and founders everywhere are watching. Here's the uncomfortable truth: no matter how the offering goes, startups lose.
Startups Lose No Matter What Anthropic's IPO Does
A $2 Trillion Pop Makes Everything Harder
If Anthropic pops above $2T, they continue subsidizing products and bid up the world's remaining compute. That's great for Anthropic. For everyone else building in AI, it means even more expensive infrastructure and an even steeper climb to compete.
A Steady $1.5 Trillion Signals the Peak
If Anthropic IPOs and holds steady at $1.5T, VCs will know the AI boom has already peaked. And here's the question that follows: if one of the fastest-growing companies in history can't deliver a massive IPO pop, what does that say about the valuations of private AI startups?
The answer isn't pretty. Late-stage rounds get harder. Term sheets get tighter. The math that worked six months ago stops working.
Below $1 Trillion Means the Bubble Bursts
If Anthropic drops below $1T, the AI bubble bursts. We all officially die.
That's the dramatic version. The realistic version is that every AI startup's last fundraise suddenly looks overpriced. Down rounds become the norm. And the companies that already bought secondary shares in Anthropic are holding paper that doesn't look so smart anymore.
The Only Path Forward Is Building Something Real
No matter which scenario plays out, the takeaway for founders is the same. You can't build your company's future on someone else's IPO performance. The AI hype cycle will do what it does.
What you can control is building something that works, charges real money, and doesn't depend on the next round to survive. That's always been true. It's just more obvious now.
Watch the Anthropic IPO if you want. But don't let it change what you're building.